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Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets is the key for Macroeconomic Stability in COMESA region

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Mr. Ibrahim Zeidy (Seated, third on the left) with participants from COMESA member countries.

Nairobi: Wednesday 23 March 2016: COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI) is conducting a series of training programmes to help member States manage volatility in prices of their financial markets assets. The focus group for this programme is the staff of the Central Banks of the member States.
The latest training programme was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya from 14 to 18 March 2016 under the theme “Practical Application of Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets within a Multivariate Framework.” It was attended by Central Banks’ staff from Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
The overall objective of the training is to build capacity of Central Bank staffs in modeling and forecasting both direct and spillover effects due to volatility in prices of financial market assets.
“The training envisages that policy makers, informed by rigorous and robust volatility analysis, will undertake forward looking measures to mitigate the adverse effects of volatility in financial markets in member countries,” CMI Director Mr. Ibrahim Zeidy said, adding that robust capacity in modeling and forecasting volatility in financial markets is key for financial and macroeconomic stability in the COMESA region.
The event was officially opened by Mr. Kishanto ole Suuji, the Assistant Director (Finance & Administration) of the Kenya School of Monetary Studies who observed that financial markets were prone to volatility.
“Volatility generates uncertainty in financial markets, which increases the associated level of risk and could therefore have serious adverse impact on financial stability and economic growth,” he said.
The two underscored the need for better understanding of financial markets volatility in member countries and robustly forecast the same in an ever changing macroeconomic environment.
“The training imparted analytical skills that will enable the participants to adequately measure and forecast volatility in prices of financial market assets,” Mr Zeidy said.
Participants were also exposed to various theoretical aspects of modeling and forecasting volatility in financial markets within a multivariate framework. They also got a good opportunity for knowledge sharing and networking.
The training programme is in line with the directive of the COMESA Committee of Governors of Central Banks made during its 21st Meeting in November 2015 in Lusaka, Zambia.

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